- The unique active addresses metric was yet to break out of a two-year downtrend.
- Analysis of the liquidation levels showed ETH bulls could be in for a surprise.
Ethereum [ETH] has traded within a range since mid-December. This range extended from $2116 to $2614, and its mid-point at $2365 has served as a significant horizontal level over the past ten weeks.
On Monday, the 12th of February, Ethereum bulls achieved a daily trading session close at $2659, above the range highs. Since then, short liquidations have also increased as prices continued to soar.
Analyzing whether the active address count spurred this rally
A massive uptick in unique active addresses accompanied the 2017 and 2020-21 bull run. Moreover, beyond November 2021, when the active address count began to decrease, ETH bulls made an attempt to push prices past the $4k mark. They were met with failure.
The current rally that Ethereum is on stretches back to October 2023. The 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the active addresses shows a gradual uptrend, according to data from CryptoQuant.
However, considering the past two years, the metric has not set a series of higher lows and higher highs. Therefore, a true uptrend on the higher timeframe was not yet established for the active addresses metric.
Yet, ETH prices reached a high not seen since May 2022. This suggested that the coming months and years could see users flock to the Ethereum network alongside an enormous increase in demand, and subsequently, price.
The derivative markets showed intense bullish sentiment
AMBCrypto analyzed the Open Interest (OI) data of the past three years from CryptoQuant. The higher timeframe uptrends have been accompanied by a sustained uptrend in the OI, showing bullish sentiment amongst speculators.
Source: CryptoQuant
Since October 2023, the 7-day SMA of the OI rose from $1.7 billion on 1st October to stand at $6.74 billion on 15th February. The climbing OI alongside the rally meant bullish conviction remained strong in the futures markets.
Source: Hyblock
The Liquidation Levels Heatmap from Hyblock was examined to understand where the next areas of interest lay. AMBCrypto noted that the $2730-$2835 pocket was breached. This zone was estimated to have multiple liquidation levels measuring anywhere from $10 billion to $15 billion.
ETH would likely face a rejection near the $2900 mark after sweeping these giant liquidity pockets. The liquidity near $3000, based on the six-month look-back chart above, was scant. A deep retracement back toward the $2000 zone to take out the liquidations there made sense.
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It was unclear if this bearish move would materialize, given the strength of bulls in recent weeks.
A move below $2500 would be necessary to give credence to expectations of a drop to $2000. Until then, a drop toward the $2500-$2600 region would present a buying opportunity.